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Armenia 2013: Results by the Party of the Precinct Commission Chair

Serzh Sargsyan’s share ranged from 52.7% in precincts chaired by Heritage to 61.6% in those chaired by Rule of Law; the chair’s party made only a small difference.

Original page on electionscount.info: Results considering heads of the commission from parties, 2013

Armenia elected its president on 18 February 2013. Seven candidates stood; the incumbent Serzh Sargsyan (Republican Party) was declared the winner in the first round, and Raffi Hovannisian (Heritage) came second. The monitoring site for this election is at elections.transparency.am/2013.

Each precinct electoral commission had a chair nominated by one of the parliamentary parties. The page “Results considering heads of the commission from parties” groups the 1,988 precincts by the chair’s party and shows the result of each group.

Eight bar charts: results of the 2013 presidential election in precincts whose commission chair represented RPA, PCL, PCL and RPA, PA, HP, ARFD, ANC, and ANC, HP and ARFD.
The chart of the page. Open the original page.

How to read this chart

One panel per party or group of parties. The heading gives the number of precincts, their voters and their share of all voters. Bars: participants (% of voters), then invalid voting papers, incorrectness (inaccuracies in the protocol) and the seven candidates, all as % of participants.

Parties: RPA Republican Party; PCL Rule of Law (Orinats Yerkir); PA Prosperous Armenia; HP Heritage; ARFD ARF Dashnaktsutyun; ANC Armenian National Congress.

What it shows

RPA chairs led 884 precincts with 47.57% of the voters; together with Rule of Law, its coalition partner, 994 precincts and 52.05%. Prosperous Armenia had 619 precincts (30.50%). Heritage, ARF and ANC together had 375 precincts with 17.44% of the voters.

Grouped bar chart: turnout, Sargsyan and Hovannisian by the party of the commission chair in 2013; Rule of Law 61.6% Sargsyan, Heritage 52.7% Sargsyan and 38.8% Hovannisian.
Turnout and the two leading candidates by the chair’s party (chart made from the page). Open the original page.

How to read this chart

Three bars for each chair’s party: turnout as % of voters, and Sargsyan’s and Hovannisian’s shares of participants.

What it shows

Chair’s partyPrecinctsTurnoutSargsyanHovannisian
Rule of Law11061.5961.6330.98
RPA88460.3956.8835.16
ANC15561.2356.5935.95
Prosperous Armenia61959.9056.1935.89
ARF11059.3455.8136.12
Heritage11058.0552.7138.84

The differences are real but small: Sargsyan’s share ranges from 52.7% where the chair came from Hovannisian’s own party, Heritage, to 61.6% where the chair came from Rule of Law.

What it means

In 2013 the chair’s party mattered less than it did two years later: in the 2015 referendum the gap between government and opposition chairs was about seven points of all voters. Here, even at the 110 precincts chaired by Heritage, Sargsyan was ahead by 14 points, and turnout was within three points of the RPA precincts.

A chair is only one of several commission members, and each party’s chairs were spread across the whole country. The small spread shows that the outcome was not decided by which party held the chair, but by the turnout and the counting in the precincts examined in the observer comparison. The “incorrectness” bar is 0.03–0.05% everywhere except the ARF-chaired precincts, where it is 0.14%.

From the book

This article is based on Chapter VI of Electoral Rights and Election Falsification by Lyudvig Khachatryan, which explains the full method, the formulas and the cases behind it.

Read the book on Amazon

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