Armenia 2021: How the Top Three Parties' Votes Change with Turnout
Civil Contract's share stays about the same from the lowest to the highest turnout. The runner-up's share jumps only at the few stations with the very highest turnout.
Original page on electionscount.info: Distribution of votes by turnout percentage, 2021
How to read this chart
Every polling station is one thin bar, sorted by turnout from 20.34% on the left to 91.30% on the right. Top panel: turnout. Then the share of valid votes at each station for the party in first place (Civil Contract, green), second (Armenia alliance, red) and third (I Have Honor alliance, orange).
What it shows
The green panel is flat: Civil Contract gets mostly 40–80% at stations of every turnout, with no rise toward the right. That is what a fair vote looks like and the opposite of the 2015 referendum, where the winner's share climbed with turnout.
The one exception is the right edge. At the small group of stations with turnout above about 70%, the red panel rises to 60–80% and the green one drops. The second-place alliance, led by the second president, did best exactly where turnout was highest.
Key to the Armenian labels: մասնակցության % = turnout %; 1-ին տեղի համար … ձայները = votes for 1st place; 2-րդ տեղի = 2nd place; 3-րդ տեղի = 3rd place; ըստ տեղամասերի = by polling station.
Reading it with the site's conclusions
The monitoring's conclusion for 2021 was that it was probably the cleanest of the elections held since 1991 in terms of voting procedure, while still far from free of mismatched numbers. Civil Contract won 53.6% and 71 seats, the Armenia alliance 20.9% and 29 seats, I Have Honor 5.2% and 7 seats. The chart supports both parts of that conclusion: a flat winner's line, and a cluster of very high-turnout stations whose pattern deserves the station-by-station check described in the capacity method.
Data and sources on this site
From the book
This article is based on Chapter VI of Electoral Rights and Election Falsification by Lyudvig Khachatryan, which explains the full method, the formulas and the cases behind it.