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Armenia 2017 Parliamentary Elections: Party Votes Above and Below Each Turnout Limit

In polling stations with turnout at or below 61%, the ruling RPA had 46.1% of the vote; above 90% turnout it had 79%. The opposition Yelk alliance fell below its threshold in the high-turnout half.

Original page on electionscount.info: Distribution of votes depending on turnout, 2017 (tk=61)

Armenia’s parliamentary elections of 2 April 2017 were held under a new Electoral Code. A party needed 5% of the votes to enter parliament, an alliance 7%. The page “Distribution of votes depending on turnout, 2017” divides the 2,009 polling stations at a turnout limit you choose and shows how the two groups voted. The limit is the number after tk= in the address; type another number in the field and press the button to change it.

How to read the two panels

Parties and alliances by number: 1 Yelk (Way Out) alliance; 2 Free Democrats; 3 Armenian Renaissance; 4 Tsarukyan alliance; 5 Congress–People’s Party of Armenia alliance (ANC–HZhK); 6 Republican Party of Armenia (RPA); 7 Communist Party of Armenia; 8 Ohanyan–Raffi–Oskanian (ORO) alliance; 9 ARF Dashnaktsutyun.

The split at 61%

Two bar charts of the 2017 parliamentary elections split at 61% turnout: left, stations above 61%; right, stations at or below 61%. Nine bars for parties and alliances with a red threshold line.
Split at 61% (close to the national turnout of 60.86%). Left: turnout above 61% (1,127 stations, 1,233,977 voters, 837,715 participants). Right: 61% or less (882 stations, 1,353,730 voters, 737,232 participants). Open the original page.

How to read this chart

The page opened with tk=61. Each panel heading gives the limit, the participants, the stations and the voters of that group. Bars 1–9 are the parties and alliances, as % of participants in the group; the red line is the threshold.

What it shows

The national turnout was 60.86%, so 61% splits the country in two. The 1,127 stations above 61% had fewer voters (1,233,977) than the 882 stations below (1,353,730) but more participants (837,715 against 737,232).

  • RPA: 51.5% above, 46.1% below.
  • Tsarukyan alliance: 27.8% and 26.6%, almost the same.
  • Yelk alliance: 5.1% above, under its 7% threshold; 10.7% below.
  • ARF: 7.0% and 6.0%.

In the stations with ordinary turnout the ruling party had 46%, short of a majority of the votes, and Yelk had more than twice its high-turnout share.

Raising the limit: 70%, 80%, 90%

Two bar charts of the 2017 parliamentary elections split at 70% turnout: left, stations above 70%; right, stations at or below 70%. Nine bars for parties and alliances with a red threshold line.
Split at 70%. Left: turnout above 70% (470 stations, 371,174 voters, 276,869 participants). Right: 70% or less (1,539 stations, 2,216,533 voters, 1,298,078 participants). Open the original page.

How to read this chart

The page opened with tk=70. Each panel heading gives the limit, the participants, the stations and the voters of that group. Bars 1–9 are the parties and alliances, as % of participants in the group; the red line is the threshold.

What it shows

470 stations reported more than 70% turnout. RPA had 54.3% there; Yelk dropped to 2.8%. ARF rose to 8.1%.

Two bar charts of the 2017 parliamentary elections split at 80% turnout: left, stations above 80%; right, stations at or below 80%. Nine bars for parties and alliances with a red threshold line.
Split at 80%. Left: turnout above 80% (84 stations, 38,129 voters, 32,395 participants). Right: 80% or less (1,925 stations, 2,549,578 voters, 1,542,552 participants). Open the original page.

How to read this chart

The page opened with tk=80. Each panel heading gives the limit, the participants, the stations and the voters of that group. Bars 1–9 are the parties and alliances, as % of participants in the group; the red line is the threshold.

What it shows

84 stations above 80%: RPA 64.8%, Tsarukyan alliance down to 17.5%, Yelk 2.1%, ARF 9.1%.

Two bar charts of the 2017 parliamentary elections split at 90% turnout: left, stations above 90%; right, stations at or below 90%. Nine bars for parties and alliances with a red threshold line.
Split at 90%. Left: turnout above 90% (20 stations, 5,674 voters, 5,248 participants). Right: 90% or less (1,989 stations, 2,582,033 voters, 1,569,699 participants). Open the original page.

How to read this chart

The page opened with tk=90. Each panel heading gives the limit, the participants, the stations and the voters of that group. Bars 1–9 are the parties and alliances, as % of participants in the group; the red line is the threshold.

What it shows

20 stations, with 5,674 voters, reported more than 90% turnout. RPA had 79.0% of their participants, the Tsarukyan alliance 11.1%, ARF 4.2% and every other list less than 2%.

As turnout rises, only the ruling party gains. Real high turnout would raise all parties’ votes in proportion; votes added to the count go to one list.

Lowering the limit: 50%, 40%, 30%, 20%

Two bar charts of the 2017 parliamentary elections split at 50% turnout: left, stations above 50%; right, stations at or below 50%. Nine bars for parties and alliances with a red threshold line.
Split at 50%. Left: turnout above 50% (1,843 stations, 2,362,382 voters, 1,469,156 participants). Right: 50% or less (166 stations, 225,325 voters, 105,791 participants). Open the original page.

How to read this chart

The page opened with tk=50. Each panel heading gives the limit, the participants, the stations and the voters of that group. Bars 1–9 are the parties and alliances, as % of participants in the group; the red line is the threshold.

What it shows

166 stations, with 225,325 voters, had 50% turnout or less. There RPA had only 40.3% and the Tsarukyan alliance 32.3%; Yelk 9.7%, ARF 6.5%. Above 50%, RPA had 49.6%.

Two bar charts of the 2017 parliamentary elections split at 40% turnout: left, stations above 40%; right, stations at or below 40%. Nine bars for parties and alliances with a red threshold line.
Split at 40%. Left: turnout above 40% (1,989 stations, 2,577,535 voters, 1,571,312 participants). Right: 40% or less (20 stations, 10,172 voters, 3,635 participants). Open the original page.

How to read this chart

The page opened with tk=40. Each panel heading gives the limit, the participants, the stations and the voters of that group. Bars 1–9 are the parties and alliances, as % of participants in the group; the red line is the threshold.

What it shows

Only 20 stations (10,172 voters) were at 40% or less. Their RPA share, 60.7%, is higher again: some of these are small stations where very few people voted, so a handful of votes changes the percentages.

Two bar charts of the 2017 parliamentary elections split at 30% turnout: left, stations above 30%; right, stations at or below 30%. Nine bars for parties and alliances with a red threshold line.
Split at 30%. Left: turnout above 30% (2,006 stations, 2,587,330 voters, 1,574,861 participants). Right: 30% or less (3 stations, 377 voters, 86 participants). Open the original page.

How to read this chart

The page opened with tk=30. Each panel heading gives the limit, the participants, the stations and the voters of that group. Bars 1–9 are the parties and alliances, as % of participants in the group; the red line is the threshold.

What it shows

Three stations with 377 voters and 86 participants: RPA 76.7%, Tsarukyan alliance 19.8%.

Two bar charts of the 2017 parliamentary elections split at 20% turnout: left, stations above 20%; right, stations at or below 20%. Nine bars for parties and alliances with a red threshold line.
Split at 20%. Left: turnout above 20% (2,007 stations, 2,587,468 voters, 1,574,902 participants). Right: 20% or less (2 stations, 239 voters, 45 participants). Open the original page.

How to read this chart

The page opened with tk=20. Each panel heading gives the limit, the participants, the stations and the voters of that group. Bars 1–9 are the parties and alliances, as % of participants in the group; the red line is the threshold.

What it shows

Two stations with 239 voters and 45 participants. With so few votes, the percentages mean little.

All splits together

Line chart: shares of RPA, Tsarukyan alliance, Yelk alliance and ARF in stations above each turnout limit from 20% to 90% in 2017; RPA rises from 48.9% to 79%, Yelk falls from 7.7% to 1.6%.
Shares in the stations above each limit, with dashed lines for the stations at or below (chart made from the eight pages).

How to read this chart

Solid lines: each party’s share in the stations above the limit on the horizontal axis. Dashed lines: the share in the stations at or below the limit, shown from 50% up, where the groups are large enough to compare.

What it shows

The RPA line is flat until 50% and then climbs steeply: 49.6% → 51.5% → 54.3% → 64.8% → 79.0%. The Yelk line falls from 7.6% to 1.6%; the Tsarukyan alliance holds at about 27% until 70% and then drops. ARF rises slightly with turnout until 80%.

What it means

Comparing parties in high- and low-turnout stations is the method of the election numbers comparison. In 2017 the result is clear: RPA’s majority is built in the stations with turnout above 61%, which are also the stations that reported registering voters faster than possible, see 668 stations faster than 60 seconds. The same tool for other years: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2021.

Notes on the page: its heading reads “Elections in ARMENIA 2021” although the data are from 2017, and the “download” link under the chart opens a file of the 2013 presidential election (resultarm18.02.13n.xls) rather than the 2017 data.

From the book

This article is based on Chapter VI of Electoral Rights and Election Falsification by Lyudvig Khachatryan, which explains the full method, the formulas and the cases behind it.

Read the book on Amazon

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